HOW TO MAKE MONEY BETTING ON FOOTBALL

Posted by Jaroinn on October 5th, 2022

American football is the sport where point margins are used the most, that is why we must understand how they work to be successful in our bets.

When it comes to betting in the United States, the NFL is the undisputed king. No sport attracts more attention and action from public bettors. According to the UNLV Gaming Research Center, Nevada sportsbooks have received more than billion in football bets since 1992. Meanwhile, Nevada sportsbooks have received billion in all sports combined since 1984.

This means that American football accounts for nearly 40 percent of all money wagered in Las Vegas. With the rise of daily fantasy sports and the spread of legalized betting, soccer betting will become increasingly popular in the years to come.

KEY NUMBERS IN THE DOTTED MARGIN 

American football is predominantly a sport where lines are based on the point spread. This means that the vast majority of bets are based on betting on giving or receiving points. Instead of having to choose who wins the game, you choose which team will cover the points.

Before diving into high-level NFL betting concepts and strategies, you must first understand the importance of key numbers. To do this, we must learn how scoring works in the NFL.

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It may seem like a no-brainer, but the most common methods of scoring are shooting from the field (3 points) and scoring touchdowns (6 points plus the extra point). The only other methods of scoring are, when an offensive team is tackled inside their own end zone, and a 2-point conversion, when a team scores from the 2-yard line after a touchdown. These represent 2 points each, but these 2-point plays are very rare. As a result, the vast majority of NFL scores are based on multiples of three (3, 6, 9, 12, etc.) and seven (7, 14, 21, 28, etc.).

Because the scoring rules are based on multiples of three and seven, it means that most games are decided by some combination of these numbers. As a result, they are considered key numbers.

The most common margin of victory in the NFL is 3 points. Since 2003, 15 percent of all NFL games have ended with a team winning by 3 points over the opponent. This makes “3” the most important key number.

The second most important key number is 7. Since 2003, 9.2 percent of games have ended with a team winning by exactly 7 points. This means that almost a quarter of all games end in 3 or 7, making them the two most important key numbers.

To put this in perspective, let's say the New York Giants play the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants score two touchdowns (14 points) and kick two field goals (6 points). The Eagles score two touchdowns (14 points) and kick a field goal (3 points). This would mean the Giants won the game 20-17, with the different ending at the key number of 3.

On the other hand, maybe the Giants will score three touchdowns (21 points) and the Eagles will score two touchdowns (14 points), with neither team kicking field goals. This would mean a 21-14 victory for the Giants, with the margin of victory ending at a key number of 7.

After 3 and 7, the next most important key numbers are 6 (6 percent of the time since 2005), 10 (5.8 percent of the time), and 4 (5.2 percent of the time). It's also interesting to note that only 3.8 percent of games end with one team winning by exactly 1 point.

Always keep in mind the key numbers and place your bets accordingly. Depending on which side you're betting on, you'll always want to make sure you're "out" on a key number. It can be the difference between winning, losing, or drawing.

For example, suppose you are watching a game in which one team receives or gives -3 points. If you like the favorite, you want to “get out” of the key 3-point number and try to get the -2.5 line instead. Why? Because three is the most common margin of victory. If you bet on the favorite –3 and it wins by three, you tie your bet. But if you bet the favorite at -2.5 and he wins by three, you win your bet because you missed the key number.

ALWAYS GET BUY POINTS

Now reverse the scenario and say the margin is -3 points and you want to bet on the underdog (the team that gives you the points). You buy the best line and do your best to get the +3.5. That extra half point is vitally important. If the game falls to -3, you call your +3 bet, but at +3.5, you win. In betting circles, the extra half point is called a hook. You can turn potential boosts into wins. When betting on the underdogs, always aim for the extra half point.

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The same thought process applies to any game with a 7-point spread, the second largest of the key numbers. If you were looking to bet on the favorite, you would want to get out of the key number of -7 and bet on the favorite at -6.5. That way, if the favorite wins by seven, you cover and win, your bet. If you bet the favorite at –7, you tie.

If you were looking to bet on the underdog, expect the +7.5. By getting that half point, you win your bet if the game lands on the key number of 7.

Isolating the other key numbers of 10, 6, and 4 means that if you are looking to bet on an underdog who is being given points with the spread on any of these numbers, you want to get the hook and take the underdog at +10.5, + 6.5 and +4.5 (so if it lands on 10, 6 or 4, you cover). Meanwhile, if you're looking to bet on the favorite in this situation, you should bet it at -9.5, -5.5, and -3.5 (so if it lands on 10, 6, or 4, you cover and win your bet).

Always ask yourself if you are close to a key number. If so, how can you get that key number to maximize your chances of winning? Do that and I assure you that you will be a successful bettor in American football.