Babar Azam promises to return stronger as he explains Pakistan's path to redemption

Posted by Xchange Tickets on October 29th, 2022

It doesn’t get much more heartbreaking than a last-ball defeat to neighbours and rivals India in front of a packed crowd at the MCG. But perhaps a loss on the last ball to Zimbabwe in Perth might just trump it.

Two defeats by the narrowest of margins have left Pakistan on the brink at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022, but not yet totally out of the picture in terms of qualification for the semi-finals.

“To be honest, it's hard (to qualify now), but we have two days, and we'll have a sit together and discuss,” a glum Babar Azam said in his media conference after the loss to Zimbabwe.

“We will come back stronger," he continued. “To be honest, we were not up to the mark, starting with the first six overs in the bowling, but later on we finished well.

“But in the batting time, we had our collapse. The batting was not up to the mark. When I and (Mohammad) Rizwan were out, Shan (Masood) and Shadab (Khan) built a partnership, but after that collapse we did not finish well.”

Out of Pakistan’s hands

In addition to relying on other outcomes abroad, Pakistan will need to win all three of their remaining matches more on those in a moment.

Now Babar and his team can score a maximum of six points. In other words, Pakistan will not qualify if any two of India, South Africa, or Zimbabwe win two of their remaining three games. It is certain that.

It might come down to Net Run Rate if Pakistan finished with six points and only one team had more than that; as the moment, India and South Africa are far ahead in that category.

However, for Pakistan to qualify, they would need to win their final three games, India to defeat South Africa, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe to finish first and second in their respective groups, and Zimbabwe to lose to either Bangladesh or the Netherlands.

So it's not mathematically impossible, but a lot of outcomes must favour Pakistan.

Will they be able to uphold their half of the bargain? What awaits in the final three matchups is as follows:

Pakistan's three 'must-win' fixtures

Sunday 30 October: Netherlands v Pakistan, Perth Stadium

To set the tone for their pursuit of a semi-final position, Pakistan will need to defeat the Netherlands with a win—and a big win. The outcomes of the remaining games on Sunday, October 30, which have Bangladesh playing Zimbabwe earlier in Brisbane and India and South Africa following Pakistan's encounter in Perth, might also be crucial. The final and lone T20I between Pakistan and Netherlands, which the Asian team easily won, took place 13 years ago.

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Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney

The SCG will play host to a significant Group 2 match that might be pivotal in Pakistan's improbable comeback. Currently rated third in the world, South Africa has a fierce bowling attack and a potent batting lineup. With six victories in the last eight T20I matches, Pakistan has a solid recent record against the Proteas.

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Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Pakistan would be confident in their prospects against Bangladesh if they are still in the race on the final game day. Since the Tigers' last victory in March 2016, Pakistan has won eight straight Twenty20 internationals (and one game has been abandoned).

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Remaining Group 2 Fixtures

Sunday 30 October: Bangladesh v Zimbabwe, The Gabba, Brisbane

Sunday 30 October: Netherlands v Pakistan, Perth Stadium

Sunday 30 October: India v South Africa, Perth Stadium

Wednesday 02 November: Zimbabwe v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval

Wednesday 02 November: India v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney

Sunday 06 November: South Africa v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Zimbabwe v India, MCG, Melbourne

State of Play in Group 2 - Can Pakistan still qualifies?

The Group 2 qualifying stakes are starting to take shape after two rounds of games, with India in the lead and Pakistan in serious peril.

However, there is still much at stake as the six sides in Group 2 vie for two spots in the 2022 ICC Men's T20 World Cup semifinals.

We examine the current situation and describe how Pakistan may yet be able to qualify.

Who’s in the driving seat to reach the semi-finals?

With a maximum of four points from their first two games, India leads the group and is in a great position to advance to the semifinals.

With a Net Run Rate of +1.425, the team is off to a strong start, and it will take a significant improvement for Rohit Sharma's team to avoid finishing in the top two.

With three games remaining, the rain-interrupted draw between South Africa and Zimbabwe leaves both teams just one point behind India, which might have a significant impact on the standings.

After their stunning victory over Pakistan, Zimbabwe now has a chance, but they will likely still need to win at least two, if not all three of their remaining games.

Due to a remarkable Net RR of +5.200 that was produced by the devastating 104-run victory over Bangladesh on Thursday, South Africa has an advantage over Zimbabwe.

That in itself is effectively worth an extra point at this stage.

Can Pakistan still make it?

Pakistan needs to do something extraordinary to go to the semifinals after suffering two defeats, both of which came on the last ball of games against India and Zimbabwe.

Although it is increasingly doubtful, it is still mathematically conceivable for Pakistan to make it to the last four.

The first task for Babar Azam's team is to win each of their final three games, which are against Bangladesh on November 6 and the Netherlands on November 6, South Africa on November 3 and Netherlands on November 8.

However, Pakistan has no control over it. The most number of points Pakistan can get is six if any two of India, Zimbabwe, or South Africa win two of their remaining three games.

A large margin of victory in at least one of the remaining games wouldn't harm either because Net RR could still play a role.

Key Upcoming Matches

Bangladesh v Zimbabwe – Sunday 30 October

With two games left, whichever team wins tonight will put themselves right in the fight for qualification. It should be an interesting matchup because both teams' bowling squads have shown promise throughout the tournament so far.

India v South Africa – Sunday 30 October

When the team in third place in the world rankings plays the team in second place, it will be a big game for the tournament and India may almost certainly qualify. Both teams will still be sure of making it, but South Africa would be especially vulnerable if they lost considering that they lost to Zimbabwe in the rain and dropped points. It makes mathematical sense for Pakistan to desire South Africa to lose this game, which would put the supporters in a difficult situation.

Pakistan v South Africa – Thursday 03 November

The Pakistan vs. South Africa match in Sydney could be a game-changing encounter for both teams, depending on the outcomes of the matches that came before it. Even without the possibility of qualification being on the line, it's a significant matchup between two of the best teams in the world.

Remaining Group 2 Fixtures

Sunday 30 October: Bangladesh v Zimbabwe, The Gabba, Brisbane

Sunday 30 October: Netherlands v Pakistan, Perth Stadium

Sunday 30 October: India v South Africa, Perth Stadium

Wednesday 02 November: Zimbabwe v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval

Wednesday 02 November: India v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney

Sunday 06 November: South Africa v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Zimbabwe v India, MCG, Melbourne

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